On August 14, at the Center for Civic Analytics "Vezha," director Valerii Klachok and political analyst Ihor Reyterovych discussed expectations for the upcoming meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin. The conversation focused on the prospects for a ceasefire, the positions of the US, Europe, China, and ongoing negotiation dynamics regarding the war in Ukraine.
The experts emphasized that public forecasts play a role in shaping political reality and influence decision-making. Reyterovych noted that European leaders and Ukrainian President Zelensky had jointly discussed possible negotiation pathways with Trump, underscoring the need to end hostilities without territorial concessions.
It was highlighted that Trump's stance is shaped by prior consultations and may quickly change. Influential factors include his immediate circle as well as key American ministers and advisors expected at the summit.
Reyterovych stressed that Trump possesses numerous political and economic levers to pressure Russia, such as sanctions, US-EU cooperation on restrictions, and supporting Ukraine with weapons and finances. However, meaningful progress is possible only with sufficient political will from both the US and Russia.
The role of China—as an outside observer that could impact the outcome based on the summit's decisions—was also discussed. Participants agreed that for the EU, maintaining Ukraine's effective sovereignty and strengthening its security in any peace deal is a priority.
If the summit ends without results, Russia may face further isolation and deeper dependence on China. Observers anticipate that the near future will determine key issues regarding a ceasefire and the global players' roles in resolving the conflict.
