On July 28, the Center for Public Energy 'Vezha' held an analytical discussion on key international events. Host Valerii Klochok and political scientist Maksym Netsvitalov focused on the signing of a new framework trade agreement between the US and the European Union. The experts assessed why the EU agreed to this deal and its links to containing Russia amid the ongoing war in Ukraine.
The agreement is currently only a framework; detailed terms remain unknown, and ratification is expected to take time due to the complexity of European bureaucracy. For Donald Trump, the deal is a significant political win to present domestically. Meanwhile, the EU has yet to assume concrete commitments, and further cooperation will depend on US actions regarding Russia.
Netsvitalov emphasized that the impact of US and EU policy on Russia will be significant only if actions are coordinated, including the imposition of secondary sanctions. China's role is also highlighted—the dialogue between Europe and China, and Beijing's reaction to Western views on the Ukraine war, are key factors.
The discussion also addressed the potential effects of sanctions on China and other regional nations, outlining scenarios where US and EU pressure could prompt China to reconsider its support for Russia. The possible outcomes of the conflict were reviewed: either a long-term frozen standoff or a consolidated Western front if Russia acts irrationally.
Experts conclude that developments will largely depend on US-EU cooperation and China's response. Should China reject collaboration with the West, swift and strict sanctions may follow. The final forecast: a near-term end to the war is unlikely, and the West is tackling the situation through close coordination.
