US President Donald Trump has set a 10-day deadline for imposing new sanctions on Russia. However, he expressed doubts about whether ultimatums can influence Russian President Vladimir Putin, who appears determined to continue the war with Ukraine.
Trump voiced frustration at the lack of response to his previous warnings but promised to implement all measures if Russia refuses peace talks or ends the war. He acknowledged that the US president does not have a "magic wand" to force Russia to end the conflict.
Commentator Vitaly Portnikov notes that in the past, sanctions affected outcomes due to joint US-European pressure. Today, with an alternative global economy in the Global South—especially China and India—these countries’ refusal to join sanctions allows Russia to ignore Western threats.
While sanctions hurt Russia’s economy and citizens, its defense industry continues to develop—with support from China and Iran. Iranian drones, for example, have shaped the nature of the war. China is unlikely to stop buying Russian oil, regardless of US sanctions, unlike India.
Portnikov argues new sanctions will not be decisive, as Russia can still maintain the conflict. He sees the main risk not in Trump’s lack of leverage but in the potential to make concessions to Putin at Ukraine’s expense. Over time, Trump realized he does not have all the cards to force Putin to end the war.
Portnikov stresses that increased US military support and strikes on Russian infrastructure may force the Kremlin to consider peace. If Russia understands the futility of a war of attrition, even a temporary pause in fighting could result.
In conclusion, Vitaly Portnikov highlights that Trump’s historical mission may be creating conditions for future US leaders to finally resolve the Russia-Ukraine war. Effective pressure could lead to a ceasefire earlier than anticipated, even though the conflict may continue for years.
