On July 30, the Center for Public Analytics “Vezha” held a discussion with political expert Ihor Reiterovych regarding Donald Trump’s recent statement setting a deadline for Vladimir Putin—August 8. The conversation explored how this ultimatum affects the Ukraine war, the Middle East, and relations with China and the EU.
The experts agreed that ending the war by Trump’s date is highly unlikely and that Trump, leveraging China as a bargaining chip, may implement 100% tariffs if Putin fails to make tangible moves toward a truce. China maintains a neutral position, declaring energy sovereignty, while leaving options open for negotiations with the United States.
The panel stressed that Trump’s deadline seeks mainly to pressure China in ongoing trade negotiations, rather than directly targeting Russia. Reactions from India, Turkey, and other countries regarding Russian oil purchases were also discussed, with the expectation that shifts in the energy market could affect the balance.
Despite internal debates, Europe is expected to maintain financial and military support for Ukraine. A new framework agreement between the US and EU, though criticized by some European politicians, creates opportunities for future negotiations with China. However, Trump’s volatile policy style could impact future internal EU decisions.
The conversation also addressed Ukraine’s domestic politics—recent protests over NABU/SAP legislation, public trust in leadership, and the potential for elections during martial law. Experts noted that President Zelensky’s approval remains stable and that scenarios involving his resignation are unlikely. Protests were attributed to broad public resonance and did not cause significant political destabilization.
In summary, analysts highlighted that the course of future events will be determined by both international moves by China and the US and Ukraine's internal political processes.
