The global economy currently looks somewhat better than it did in the spring. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised its forecasts: for 2025, growth is now expected at 3%, and for 2026—at 3.1%. Previous predictions were more modest, at 2.8% and 3% respectively.
This improvement has mainly resulted from a reduction in trade tensions between the US and other countries and a weakening US dollar. Recent agreements signed by the Trump administration have eased market concerns. Additionally, the US dollar fell by 9% against major currencies, making international trade easier and stimulating other economies.
World economic growth has also benefited from countries adapting to protectionist measures, and many companies preemptively imported goods into the US in anticipation of new tariffs. This brought a short-term boost but may lead to an overstock of goods if the economy slows down.
The US and China have both seen their growth projections revised upward: for 2025, the US outlook is now 1.9%, and China’s is 4.8%. The UK’s projection has also risen to 1.2% for 2025.
The IMF emphasized the importance of central bank independence. There is pressure on the US Federal Reserve from the government to lower interest rates, but economists warn that interference could destabilize financial markets.
Although current global economic results surpass earlier expectations, growth rates remain below pre-pandemic levels. The future trajectory will depend not only on macroeconomic metrics but also on the predictability of government and central bank policies worldwide.
