Experts have discussed the potential impact of Donald Trump’s announced sanctions against China, India, Russia, and other countries trading with Russia. According to the participants, these sanctions—scheduled to take effect after August 8—could affect China’s stance and possibly contribute to Russia’s decision to at least suspend hostilities in Ukraine.
It was noted that China has already stated that any decision depends less on sanctions and more on Russia’s actions. Meanwhile, negotiations between the US and China on a bilateral trade agreement continue, and Trump’s sanctions are seen primarily as leverage in talks with China, rather than Russia.
The likelihood of India and other major buyers of Russian oil influencing Moscow was also discussed. Experts believe the Kremlin is not yet convinced that Trump will actually impose secondary sanctions on energy buyers.
Participants highlighted that the issue of sanctions is a crucial part of the US-China negotiation process. The overall impact on Ukraine’s situation will largely depend on Beijing’s position, as China could pressure Russia to change its behavior.
Additionally, it is expected that Europe will respond by mobilizing more resources to support its own and Ukraine’s defense industries. The importance of internal reforms in Ukraine is also emphasized, especially ensuring the independence of the NABU and SAP anti-corruption agencies, to maintain European support.
Experts agree that without a global deal, the continuation of the conflict in Ukraine remains the most realistic scenario. The roles of Europe and the US will stay crucial in financial, military, and political support for Kyiv.
