On August 1, the Veza Public Analytical Center hosted a talk featuring political analyst Petro Oleshchuk (United Ukraine Analytical Center). The main topic was Vladimir Putin’s recent actions, including his meeting with Alexander Lukashenko, against the backdrop of expected comments on Trump’s ultimatum regarding the war in Ukraine.
According to the discussion, Putin did not make any significant new statements, repeating classic positions about the aims of the "special military operation". Lukashenko, meanwhile, mentioned the idea of an “air ceasefire”, but Putin did not react publicly. The expert suggested that Lukashenko played a decorative role, allowing Putin to simulate a response to Trump without appearing to be dictated to.
The analysis underlines that Russia showed no real readiness for compromise. Any agreement from Putin would mean total acceptance of Russian conditions for Ukraine. Therefore, calls for peace are used as an informational tactic rather than a genuine offer.
The conversation also covered US and Chinese diplomacy, given the possibility that ongoing talks between Washington and Beijing could impact the Ukrainian negotiation track. In the analyst’s view, it is in China's interest to prolong the conflict in order to exhaust Russian resources and increase Moscow’s dependency on Beijing.
As for a potential Vitkof visit to Moscow, it is seen as an attempt to convey another message to Putin, but no breakthrough is expected. Oleshchuk believes the most probable outcomes are further sanctions on Russia, a gradual shift of war responsibility towards the Trump administration, and intensified international pressure. Putin’s core stance on occupied Ukrainian territories has not changed.
The expert stresses that curbing Putin’s influence is key to ending the war, as this is the only way to ensure lasting security for Ukraine and the West. In summary, the next weeks are not expected to bring dramatic change: the war remains an element of global political bargaining among major international actors.
