Large-scale fires occurred at oil refineries in Russia’s Samara and Ryazan regions, as well as military plants and airfields, following one of the biggest Ukrainian drone attacks in recent months. The strikes confirmed Ukraine's capability to hit targets sensitive to the Russian economy and military industry.
Russia has so far struggled to respond effectively. In recent months, reports of Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil infrastructure had been rare, but this latest attack marks a breach of an informal “red line.” This escalation coincides with the shift in US-Russia political dialogue after Donald Trump’s election, when calls for Ukrainian restraint against Russian targets became less urgent.
The war is shifting towards reciprocity: while Russia continues air strikes on Ukraine’s civilian infrastructure, Ukraine is stepping up asymmetric attacks on key Russian assets. Russian President Vladimir Putin relies on aerial terror to demoralize and depopulate Ukraine. In response, Ukrainian forces are targeting strategic facilities—oil refineries, military plants, and airfields.
These strikes limit Russia’s ability to finance the war and produce weapons by reducing oil revenues—a key element in this war of attrition. The attacks also set precedents for other authoritarian states: Chinese leaders, for example, now recognize the risks of war against Taiwan and the potential for similar retaliation.
Kyiv aims to demonstrate that military pressure is the only way to force Russia to halt aggression, since diplomatic dialogue remains fruitless under the current Kremlin regime. Ukrainian strikes serve as a warning to authoritarian leaders about unavoidable losses and the need to reconsider aggressive foreign policies.
