In a recent interview, an expert discussed the current state of trade negotiations between China and the US. Following Scott Besant's statement about the deal being almost ready, it emerged that talks are ongoing and US tariffs on Chinese goods have merely been postponed, with further deadlines extended.
The US holds a strategic advantage, having secured most major trade agreements with key allies on American terms. China is at risk of losing access to leading global markets. The negotiations are also affected by Beijing’s position on the Russia-Ukraine conflict, with China playing a critical role in Russia's capacity to continue military operations.
The US is considering tariffs up to 234% on Chinese products if an agreement is not reached. China’s reliance on Western markets makes it likely to have to compromise. Meanwhile, Beijing is losing its proxy jurisdictions in Southeast Asia, as several countries sign anti-China trade agreements with Washington.
Rising tariffs and potential new sanctions threaten China’s economy, leading to factory closures, unemployment, and public protests. At the same time, Ukraine may become part of new strategic US alliances, such as a joint drone initiative with Taiwan.
In summary, the outcome of US-China negotiations affects both the global economy and the geopolitical situation, including the course of the war in Ukraine.
