On August 5, the Center for Public Analytics "Vezha" aired an interview with military expert Ivan Stupak. Key topics discussed included expectations for August 8, military assistance to Ukraine, new variants of the Shahed drone, and China’s role in Russia’s war against Ukraine.
Regarding August 8, Stupak urged skepticism about U.S. and Donald Trump’s public statements, since previous promises and dates have not held true. A likely scenario may involve a tactical pause or a week-long ceasefire proposal. Stupak put the probability of this at 40-45%.
The interview also addressed statements from Trump’s spokesperson Matt Whitaker about upcoming U.S. aid to Ukraine, which could include unique military items in small numbers or large quantities of ammunition. For now, the focus remains on defensive support.
Special attention was given to Russia’s increased production of Shahed kamikaze drones, including the possibility of new jet-powered types. Experts consider mass production of such variants unlikely, with Russia's capacity not exceeding 200 units daily.
The discussion also explored China’s role, noting that China is engaged in trade—supplying Russia with raw materials, microelectronics, and components, but not weapons. EU sanctions against China may be considered cautiously due to Europe's trade dependence. China’s support is chiefly economic.
In conclusion, Ivan Stupak highlighted the uncertainty surrounding jet-powered drones and emphasized that Ukraine's current military aid strategy remains defensive.
