Large-scale military drills are planned in Belarus in September 2025, raising concerns in Ukraine and among its regional partners. Experts emphasize the importance of monitoring real military movements, not just official statements from Belarus or Russia, but also intelligence reports from allied sources.
Currently, the likelihood of a major offensive from Belarusian territory is considered low. This assessment comes as the Belarusian army, after 2022, transferred much of its supplies and military equipment to Russia. Nonetheless, analysts stress the need for a coordinated information policy among Ukraine, Poland, and Lithuania regarding regional security.
The expert notes these joint drills could see the presence of Chinese and North Korean troops. While China's involvement is largely symbolic, North Korean participation is seen as increased Kremlin pressure. However, the number of foreign troops involved so far is believed to be limited.
Attention is also focused on Belarusian legislation that would require a response to any attack on the "Union State" (namely Russia). This legislation is viewed as a step towards deeper integration with Russia by 2030, though President Lukashenko seeks to maintain his own political autonomy. Analysts warn that any successor to Lukashenko may be even more pro-Russian.
In conclusion, while Belarus does not currently pose a direct military threat, the situation remains dynamic and calls for constant monitoring. The absence of democratic reforms in Belarus is seen as a security risk for both Ukraine and the wider European region.
