The United States is considering new tariffs against China, and additional tariffs against India due to its ongoing purchases of Russian oil. Donald Trump has publicly raised this issue, emphasizing pressure on countries who support Russian trade through energy resources in order to secure new trade agreements favorable to the US.
India is the world’s second-largest importer of Russian oil. Despite US pressure, India remains reluctant to cut ties, given the considerable profits it earns from refining Russian oil and exporting oil products—including to the US and Europe. The key US tool for pressure may not be a ban on crude imports, but rather a limitation on oil products from India that are made with Russian crude.
Theoretically, India could shift away from Russian oil, but this would require both time and investment to reorient refineries. Alternatives could include Venezuelan or Saudi crude, but the significant discount on Russian oil makes this cooperation very attractive for Indian refiners.
For Russia’s economy, any significant reduction in Indian purchases would be a serious blow, since alternative sales markets are scarce. At the same time, the US has benefited in recent years from increased energy exports, giving its measures both political and economic motivations.
The primary objective for Washington is to negotiate favorable trade deals and boost US exports of goods and energy. The only likely factor that can shift India’s position is a notable fall in demand for its oil products from the US and EU or stepped-up sanctions.
