Vitaliy Portnikov examines the possible outcomes of a potential meeting between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska regarding future agreements on Ukraine’s borders—a topic widely discussed in global politics and media.
Portnikov notes that talk of territory exchange is inaccurate, as the discussion concerns only control of Ukrainian lands. He cites four scenarios proposed by Time magazine. The first scenario involves a ceasefire along the front line, as Trump has repeatedly suggested to Putin. However, Russia has shown no willingness to agree.
The second scenario would grant Russia control over all Ukrainian regions it has occupied since 2014, including Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia. For Ukraine, this would mean losing major cities and key positions.
The third scenario envisions Russia cementing control over the Donbas if Ukraine withdraws troops from Donetsk region—posing further humanitarian and security threats to Ukraine.
The fourth scenario would see Ukraine regain full control over Kherson region, while other front lines remain unchanged. This is unlikely for Russia, which would lose its land corridor to Crimea.
Portnikov concludes that all these scenarios are unrealistic and suggests that the main purpose of the meeting for Trump likely involves economic interests. Any agreements lacking Ukrainian security guarantees could lead to a new phase of confrontation.
