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US-China Trade Tensions: Behind the Talks and Economic Support for Russia


An analysis of US-China trade negotiations, their influence on the war in Ukraine, and Russia's economic dependence.

The ongoing negotiations between the US and China remain tense after Donald Trump signed an order extending trade talks until November 9. Previous deadlines, such as August 12, passed without the imposition of harsh tariffs, illustrating that many of Trump’s strong statements were more rhetorical than practical.

Meanwhile, China halted production at a major lithium mine, causing global lithium prices to surge. Lithium is essential for electric vehicle battery production, making these price shifts impactful for global markets.

Annual trade turnover between the US and China is significant—ranging from $600 to $700 billion. Chinese goods heavily populate the US market, and the US consistently faces a large trade deficit with China.

China also remains the primary buyer of sanctioned Iranian oil, despite international agreements and UN decisions, highlighting the country's strategic independence.

While Russia continues its war in Ukraine, prospects for a substantial agreement between Trump and Putin remain slim due to Russia’s lack of economic independence. Analysts suggest that China may soon provide a stabilization loan to Russia to finance its growing budget deficit amid economic decline.

The current dialogue between the US and China is also seen as an avenue to pressure Russia regarding the war in Ukraine. All sides are leveraging the situation for their own goals, but Russia is losing autonomy in key decisions. Continued negotiations between Washington and Beijing could influence outcomes, though for now, they remain part of a long-term geopolitical process.