On August 14, Oler Klychok provided an update on the upcoming summit between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin. Trump is determined to urge Putin to agree to a ceasefire and has prepared a series of incentives aimed at reaching an agreement. At the same time, European leaders were reassured by Trump that territorial issues would not be discussed with Putin; these are reserved for future talks between Zelensky and Putin.
According to Politico, Europeans became more optimistic about support for Ukraine after their talks with Trump. The summit's main focus will be on achieving a ceasefire. Reports in The Times and Politico indicate that the US is prepared to offer Ukraine certain security guarantees, though not within the NATO framework.
Key incentives prepared by Trump for the negotiations include partial lifting of sanctions on the Russian aviation sector, access to certain natural resources, and reviewing technology export policies. The US plans to support Ukraine's security outside of NATO, with the possibility of limited arms sales via European intermediaries.
Recently, Ukrainian drones successfully struck one of Russia's largest oil refineries in Volgograd. In response, Russian forces carried out limited air and drone attacks on Ukraine. Ukrainian air defences intercepted part of the attacks, though several strikes were recorded.
US sources suggest potential proposals at the summit may include lifting restrictions on aircraft parts exports and allowing Russian access to certain natural resources as motivation for ending hostilities. The key objective for the first phase of negotiations remains achieving a ceasefire; more complex territorial discussions are planned separately with Zelensky present.
Meanwhile, Russia is conducting military exercises in Belarus and preparing for tests of new cruise missiles. Domestically, Russia is seeing a sharp decline in birth rates, providing further incentive for seeking a freeze in the conflict.
