This expert analysis explores Russia's expectations from upcoming talks with China and examines how the US, especially Donald Trump, could influence the situation in the context of the war in Ukraine.
Three possible scenarios of China’s response to Russia are discussed: continued support at the current level, a refusal to further assist due to the need to negotiate with the US, or an ambiguous answer that leaves Russia room for maneuver. The interdependence of the US and Chinese economies, crucial for these negotiations, is highlighted.
The article analyzes recent statements by Sergey Lavrov, which, according to the expert, do not constitute Russia’s final demands, since the official Russian position has not been made public due to the risk of Western rejection. The Russian diplomatic approach of delaying decisions and constantly changing narratives is considered in detail.
The piece also examines the issue of international security guarantees for Ukraine, including bilateral agreements, the role of Western experts and instructors, and the challenges of collective security mechanisms. It concludes that Ukraine’s main guarantee remains its strong army, supported by the supply of weapons and financial assistance from partners.
The analysis offers a vision of future developments and underlines the importance of creating an effective security system for Ukraine through international cooperation.
