On August 25, at the Veza Civic Analytics Center, Valerii Klochok and expert Maksym Netsvytailov discussed prospects for ending the Russia-Ukraine war. The discussion focused on statements by American and European politicians and China’s influence on the situation.
Netsvytailov noted that there are no real guarantees for a quick end to the war; instead, politicians’ forecasts, including Keith Kellogg’s statement about possible peace by next Independence Day, are aimed at giving hope to society. Factors influencing the war’s duration include Western military aid, Russia’s economic and human resources, support from China and North Korea, as well as the effectiveness of Ukrainian Armed Forces in targeting Russian rear positions.
The experts discussed Russia’s increasing centralization, information control and isolation, and the pivotal role of Putin, whose decisions greatly impact prospects for peace. The influence of China was acknowledged, but it was emphasized that Beijing is a strategic partner, not a direct manager of Russia’s actions.
The conversation also covered a new bill proposing to allow men up to age 24 to leave Ukraine. Possible risks of significant youth outflow and potential effects on the country’s mobilization capacity were highlighted. The experts concluded that predicting the end of the war is highly complex and stressed the importance of critical analysis of politicians’ statements.
The discussion closed with a reminder of the value of independent analysis and critical thinking in society, and an invitation to follow thematic analytical resources.
