This expert discussion examines China's influence on Russia's war against Ukraine. While Kyiv officially rejects Beijing as a security guarantor, China remains a key factor in any negotiations aiming to resolve the conflict.
Analysts emphasize that Russia is now economically and politically dependent on China's support. After Western sanctions, China became Moscow’s main external partner, providing investments, technology, and significant backing for Russia’s military-industrial complex, thereby ensuring the resilience of Russia’s economy and its ability to continue the war.
The possibility of China participating in peacekeeping missions or deploying personnel to occupied areas of Ukraine—potentially mandated by the UN Security Council—is discussed. This approach is opposed by Ukraine and its Western allies, who fear the increased entrenchment of Chinese influence and de facto legitimation of Russia’s occupation via Beijing’s involvement.
The discussion also considers the likely tough tariff measures by the US and Europe against China if it continues supporting Russia. Observers note that the political trajectory of the conflict will be determined by Xi Jinping’s decisions, as China holds substantial sway over developments in the region.
Experts further note that US hopes of restoring Russian agency and turning Russia against China are unlikely to materialize, given Beijing's deep influence on Russian leadership. Thus, the future of peace efforts is closely tied to shifts in China’s stance and its willingness to impact the conflict's dynamics.
