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Global Political Risks: Russia, France, Moldova and Challenges for Ukraine


An analytical overview of Ukraine's diplomatic situation, Russia's recession, political crises in France and Moldova, and regional implications.

The Kremlin signals readiness for talks with Ukraine, but keeps introducing new requirements and delaying the process. Andriy Yermak met with a US envoy, resulting in what was described as a constructive but vague dialogue, with agreements to be further discussed with the respective presidents.

Russia, for its part, claims willingness for a Putin–Zelensky meeting but insists on prior expert-level preparations. The Russian Foreign Ministry demands that any security guarantees for Ukraine should also extend to Russia, which experts view as an attempt to stall real talks.

On the economic front, Russia's main state bank officially acknowledged for the first time the onset of a technical recession—economic decline has continued for several consecutive months.

France also faces instability: a possible government reshuffle and economic issues could trigger a political crisis. François Bayrou expressed willingness to lead the government and initiate reforms, but there is a risk of early elections and opposition taking power.

Moldova is heading into elections, with authorities warning that a pro-Russian victory could affect the stability of Moldova and the whole region. Ukrainian experts and institutions are monitoring the situation to prevent destabilization.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky highlighted three key security components: a strong army, NATO support, and effective sanctions against Russia. Ukraine is urging international partners for tangible support—not just words, but concrete action.

For Europe, crises in Russia, France, or Moldova pose the risk of broader instability. Ukraine continues to show responsible leadership to strengthen European unity and security.