Political analyst Ihor Chalenko provides a detailed overview of the major military exercises planned by Russia, its satellite states, and NATO until the end of 2025. He highlights increasing security risks in Europe, especially amid the ongoing Russian-Ukrainian war and the rise in hybrid activities by the Kremlin directed at Western nations.
Chalenko notes that Russia not only continues military action against Ukraine, but is also preparing for large-scale exercises, such as “Zapad 2025” with Belarus. Official statements suggest 13,000 to 30,000 troops will participate, though some estimates go as high as 200,000. The focus will be on defense, coordination, air defense, and even nuclear weapons scenarios.
Meanwhile, NATO is running numerous drills: Iron Defender 25 in Poland (involving 34,000 troops from several countries), Large Scale Exercise 2025 with more than 150 ships and 15,000 sailors, and others. The Alliance is working on coordination, logistics, response to hybrid threats, cyber defense, and nuclear deterrence.
Russia is intensifying hybrid operations: sabotage in Poland and the Baltic states, exerting energy pressure by damaging key maritime cables, conducting cyberattacks, and instigating migration crises through Belarus. An incident involving Ursula von der Leyen’s plane, which lost GPS during landing in Bulgaria, is also mentioned.
Chalenko recalls that following similar drills in 2021, Russian troops remained in Belarus and near Ukraine’s borders, which preceded the February 2022 invasion. These maneuvers are therefore seen as possible preparation for new escalation against both Ukraine and the West.
NATO is preparing for an active scenario on its eastern flank, while Russian provocations are growing in scale. Kremlin military and political pressure continues to rise, but the war is depleting Russia’s resources. Europe is preparing for different threats, and supporting Ukraine remains a high priority.
