On September 4, the Veza Center for Public Analytics hosted an expert online discussion with Valeriy Klochok and analyst Illia Neshkhodovsky on the future of financial support and security guarantees for Ukraine in the event of a "frozen" conflict.
The experts believe that the main burden of security guarantees will likely continue to fall on European Union countries, which are prepared to invest in supporting the Ukrainian military and defense industry. Meanwhile, according to analysts, the US role will mainly focus on the sale of arms and the provision of intelligence. Direct American military involvement or agreement to new formats of security guarantees is considered unlikely.
Denmark, the Baltic states, and the Netherlands remain the most loyal and active Ukrainian partners, willing to invest in Ukraine’s defense industry and buy Ukrainian weapons. France is also developing its own weapon systems, maintaining independence from US decisions. Poland, as experts note, often ties its military assistance to receiving compensation from the US or EU.
Ukraine’s defense expenses in 2024 are estimated at around $65 billion (including foreign assistance and arms spending), which is over half of the country’s budget and 43% of Russia’s spending. If the fighting decreases in intensity and troop numbers drop to 500,000, annual costs could fall to about $10 billion. However, modernizing Ukraine’s defense industry requires additional multi-billion-dollar annual investments.
The experts emphasized that European partners are likely to agree to finance the maintenance of Ukraine’s army as a factor in their own security. Direct foreign troop presence or expansion of the security guarantee format is not expected. Ukraine should thus rely primarily on its own capabilities and continue investing in weapons production and the defense sector.
The discussion concluded by noting the importance of continued consolidated Western financial and military support as well as reforms to further strengthen Ukraine’s defense capacity.
