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Russian Fuel Crisis and Drone Strikes: Security Guarantees for Ukraine Remain Uncertain


Ukraine intensifies strikes on Russian energy, causing a fuel crisis in occupied and Russian territories. Europe debates post-war security guarantees for Ukraine.

As Russia continues to target Ukrainian civilians, Ukraine has stepped up attacks on Russian energy infrastructure. Last night, Ukrainian drones targeted the Ryazan oil refinery and a fuel depot in Russian-occupied Luhansk, where fuel shortages have led to long queues.

Similar fuel crises are evident in other Russian regions, with shortages and rising prices blamed on Ukrainian strikes and ongoing sanctions. The deteriorating Russian economy is acknowledged even by officials, despite their reluctance to use the term “crisis.”

The Ukrainian defense forces are successfully intercepting Russian drones nightly, largely thanks to drones supplied by public donations. The population is urged to continue supporting Ukraine’s military needs.

Security guarantees for Ukraine after the war remain a focus. At a Paris summit, European countries discussed sending limited troop contingents to Ukraine only after a ceasefire, while the US takes a back seat, pressing for European leadership. The UK and France have announced intentions to support Ukraine by air and land in the future.

The article highlights that a ceasefire—currently rejected by Russia—is a key condition for tangible security guarantees. Moscow maintains plans for continued hostilities and attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure.

Ukraine faces challenges with military reform, including harsher penalties for non-compliance and slow progress on establishing a military ombudsman. Strikes on Russian territory and economic sanctions remain Ukraine’s primary tools for pressuring Russia, already impacting its economy.

The author calls on Ukrainians to keep supporting UAV procurement and internal military reforms, emphasizing the need to strengthen Ukraine’s defense capabilities for lasting security.