On September 9, political scientist Ihor Chalenko discussed on the Klochokta channel the upcoming parliamentary elections in Moldova scheduled for September 28 and their critical impact on Ukraine and Europe.
The elections will be based on a proportional system: 101 deputies will be elected in a single national constituency. The electoral threshold is 5% for parties, 7% for blocs, and 2% for independent candidates. Turnout is expected to be between 50-60%, with the diaspora—mostly supporting Moldova’s pro-European course—having a potentially decisive role.
Moldovan society is currently divided. On one side is the PAS party led by Maia Sandu and Prime Minister Dorin Recean, advocating for reforms and European integration. On the other are pro-Russian forces promising neutrality, cheap gas, and the restoration of ties with Russia.
Recent polls show pro-Russian forces, including the Patriotic Bloc and Our Party, could win a majority in parliament, especially if the diaspora's turnout is low. Pro-European forces, mainly PAS, require maximum support from foreign voters to form a coalition and maintain the path to the EU.
The situation is further complicated by Russian interference using financial tools, disinformation, and support for opposition parties. Ilan Shor, despite his bloc being banned, significantly influences the process by funding and promoting a pro-Russian agenda.
Social polarization, economic instability, energy crises, and rising emigration increase the risks for Moldova's pro-European direction. Chalenko emphasizes that the election outcome will determine Moldova's future geopolitical course, which will impact Ukraine's security—if pro-Russian forces win, threats to Ukraine’s southern regions will grow.
Possible scenarios include a pro-Russian majority, a pro-European coalition involving the diaspora, or a fragmented parliament leading to challenging negotiations. Russia’s hybrid influence, intense information warfare, and the role of independent media and Ukrainian diplomacy remain key factors in confronting these challenges.
Chalenko calls on Ukraine to strengthen its information and diplomatic support for Moldova's pro-European forces, as the election result will shape regional stability and the shared path to European integration.
