On September 9, Poland announced the closure of its border with Belarus following the launch of joint Belarusian-Russian military drills “Zapad 2025.” Military expert Ivan Stupak notes that while the number of forces involved is not critical (about 4,000 troops and 450 pieces of equipment), Western countries remain cautious about potential threats and exercises near Poland and the Baltic states’ borders.
The Belarusian Defense Ministry had earlier shifted the exercises deeper into its territory, but given Belarus’s size, military maneuvers can swiftly return to the western borders. Poland and the Baltic nations have intensified border fortifications, laid mines, built obstacles, and urged citizens to leave Belarus to avoid risks such as being taken hostage or being caught in the event of escalation.
Stupak highlights the risk of an attempt to control the Suwałki Corridor—potentially enabling the connection of Russia’s Kaliningrad region with Belarus, thus threatening land routes between NATO and EU states. Russia has notably ramped up its electronic warfare activities, expanded military infrastructure in Kaliningrad, and promoted disinformation about alleged Western preparations to attack Russia.
The discussion also covers the return of Russian veterans from Ukraine and the potential societal risks, with Russian authorities voicing the idea of isolating these veterans in remote regions beyond the Urals.
On Ukrainian support, German-made Skyranger mobile anti-drone systems are being supplied, reflecting the EU’s incremental military aid. Yet, Ukraine faces a defense budget shortfall of UAH 300 billion by year-end, according to the Finance Ministry. The need for sustained European assistance and maintaining a robust Ukrainian Armed Forces capability is emphasized, especially should the war freeze.
The situation in Belarus remains under close watch as both local provocations and broader destabilization attempts in the region are possible.
