Following the start of the Zapad 2025 military drills, Poland announced it was closing its border with Belarus. Military expert Ivan Stupak explains the reasoning behind this move and assesses the real threats facing Poland and the Baltic states.
According to Stupak, NATO's focus has recently shifted towards Belarus, as a new round of Belarusian-Russian exercises is taking place close to the borders of Poland and Lithuania. Belarusian authorities claim to have relocated some exercises deeper into the country as a gesture of goodwill, but with Belarus’s small geographical size, this doesn’t significantly slow any potential redeployment to the border if needed.
Poland and the Baltic states are enhancing security: fortifications, mining, and the erection of barriers. Warsaw has advised its citizens to leave Belarus, fearing that in an escalation scenario they might be taken hostage—a tactic seen with Russia in the past.
Currently, the presence of 4,000 troops in the drills is not critical, according to the expert, but an increase in numbers could signal a higher threat. On the Polish side, around 30,000 troops are already stationed near the border.
Strategic attention is drawn to the Suwałki corridor—a crucial strip connecting the Lithuanian-Polish border to Russia’s Kaliningrad region. Control over this region could potentially allow Russia to cut off the Baltic states from the rest of NATO.
Stupak also points to the rapid increase in Russian electronic warfare activity, as reflected in official statistics. NATO countries have responded by installing monitoring and response systems.
For now, the risks are limited to increased drills and fortifications, but close monitoring of the situation remains critical for the region’s security.
