On September 12, experts from the Veza Center for Public Analytics held an in-depth discussion on recent geopolitical events. Participants—Valerii Klychuk, Vadym Denysenko, Oleh Penzyn, and Oleksandr Antonyuk—analyzed the drone attacks on Poland, global leaders' reactions, the impact of Russian exercises, and the economic conditions in Russia and Ukraine, along with the roles of China, Europe, and the US.
The experts noted that the drone attacks on Poland are considered part of hybrid warfare and an element of information operations. They do not expect global escalation, seeing Russian maneuvers and official statements largely as elements of an information and PR campaign.
The logic of Russia's actions, its agreements with China, and the difficult economic situation—including budget deficits, stagnation, inflation risks, and dependence on exports to China and India—were discussed. Sanctions and global energy prices also play key roles. Experts noted that China is not seeking escalation due to its key economic interests in the EU.
Economists highlighted the challenges facing Russia: increasing budget deficits, stagnation, inflation risks, and reliance on exports to China and India. At the same time, the US and Europe are seeking ways to control Russian energy trade.
Ukraine's financial future is under discussion. Europe has announced a new form of lending—a reparations-based credit tied to future Russian reparations. With direct US support limited, the EU remains the main source of aid. Strategically, there is also a focus on greater integration with Poland and the Baltic states in security and air defense.
Analysts urge Ukraine to form regional alliances and play an active role in European security. Ukraine is seen as having the potential to become a key player in European resilience and defense.
