In recent days, the possibility of escalating conflict around Ukraine due to Russia's actions and statements toward Poland has become a subject of intense international discussion. These developments follow Vladimir Putin's visit to China, after which Russian officials warned Poland against closing its border with Belarus, calling such actions "unacceptable" and potentially consequential.
The expert emphasizes that these statements and activities should not be seen as the onset of global escalation or World War III. According to his view, Russia is following a pre-set plan that includes the upcoming "Zapad-2025" military exercises, drone flights, and information campaigns. The goal is to create media tension, not to present an actual military threat.
Lithuanian intelligence reports about 2,000 Russian troops in Belarus, while the broader drills will involve up to 30,000, with only a fraction deployed in Belarus. The expert does not foresee a major incursion into Poland, Ukraine, or other neighboring states.
In a wider geopolitical context, there is an analysis of potential diplomatic interaction among Putin, Trump, and China. The hypothesis expressed is that China has granted Russia a "time cushion" by maintaining its trading and financial links, and might agree to purchase oil originally destined for India.
The US position remains twofold: sanctions against Russia have not been lifted, but at the same time, there is limited resource access in the Arctic. Meanwhile, Ukraine continues to attack Russian energy infrastructure, and the previous US ban on such actions has apparently been eased.
China has recently pushed Belarus to reduce tensions and improve relations with its neighbors. Belarus itself has shifted military drills from the border deeper into its territory to avoid escalation. The US is also balancing sanctions on Minsk with symbolic gestures, such as lifting restrictions against the airline Belavia.
