The scenarios of upcoming large-scale Russian-Belarusian military exercises, which pose threats to both Ukraine and NATO countries, have become known. The main three include: a possible breakthrough through the Suwalki corridor to connect with Kaliningrad, the simulation of nuclear strikes, and internal repression—searching for 'Ukrainian agents' among Belarusian opposition members.
Leading publications like Bild warn about risks for the Baltics and Poland, noting that one scenario is an imitation of a NATO attack on Kaliningrad, which could serve as a pretext for Russian offensive action. Up to 18,000 troops are reportedly involved. Another scenario is the rehearsal of nuclear weapons use. The third is the possibility of internal repression in Belarus, though some analysts doubt the necessity of using the army for internal crackdowns.
European and US politicians are closely following these developments. Czech Foreign Minister Jan Lipavský has called for tougher sanctions against Russia for provocations near NATO borders. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk warns of rising pro-Russian sentiment in Poland, urging political maturity and solidarity with Ukraine. Western media, meanwhile, expresses concern about a possible loss of US support for Europe if escalation continues.
A public debate between two pro-Ukrainian politicians—Boris Johnson and Alexander Stubb—on strategies to achieve peace in Ukraine is highlighted. Both support Ukraine but differ in their approaches to ending the war.
The article stresses the importance of Ukraine maximizing international support, keeping allies informed about real threats, and improving defense capabilities, in particular by training mobile groups to counter drone attacks.
