Political analyst Ihor Reiterovych, on his channel 'Kluchek Time,' analyzed the situation regarding the 'Zapad-2025' military exercises currently taking place by Russia in Belarus. He notes that these exercises draw public attention and serve as a tool for Russia to exert psychological pressure on NATO countries and create a favorable information background for itself.
Similar large-scale exercises have been held previously, formally under defensive pretexts. However, as Reiterovych points out, there is no evidence of actual threats to Russia or Belarus. The main goal of the exercises is to improve integration and coordination between the Russian and Belarusian armies in the context of a hypothetical conflict with NATO.
The analyst highlights the specifics of the Belarusian army, which since 1991 has had no combat or peacekeeping experience. Despite having significant equipment, its real combat readiness remains questionable, but integration into Russian command structures is increasing with each joint exercise.
Against a backdrop of provocations, particularly drone incursions into Poland and other NATO countries, the attention to these drills has intensified. NATO has responded by reinforcing border patrols and transferring troops to the Belarusian frontier. The expert believes that a full-scale invasion from Belarus is unlikely at this time, but threats remain in the form of border incidents, cyberattacks, and information operations (IPSO).
For Ukraine, these developments are of strategic importance: the experience of 2022 showed that such military drills can precede a real invasion. Large forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine remain stationed at the Belarusian border, which is heavily fortified and monitored by security services. These measures are crucial to prevent and respond to possible provocations or attempts to drag Belarus into war.
Reiterovych stresses that European countries need to draw their own conclusions and adopt Ukrainian experience in defense and deterrence. The best NATO response would be to conduct similar drills near Belarus and to enhance support for Ukraine. Furthermore, the deployment of nuclear weapons on Belarusian territory raises regional risks and makes Belarus a potential target in the event of a wider conflict involving Russia.
The expert urges European partners not to underestimate the threats and to learn from past events. The current risk of direct confrontation during exercises is considered low, but the situation remains dynamic given the unpredictability of Kremlin actions. Ukraine will continue to strengthen its defenses and readiness for any scenario.
