An expert outlines expectations for future EU sanctions against Russia. While a full embargo is unlikely, there will be a phased reduction in the purchase of Russian liquefied gas. Slovakia and Hungary are unlikely to give up Russian pipeline oil, but the sanctions package is expected to include a full withdrawal from Russian energy imports by mid-2026. This aligns with the energy storage schedule before the heating season.
The expert also discusses the political context, noting that upcoming elections in the US and Europe influence the toughness of decisions. Donald Trump's stance may shift under party pressure, as most Republicans expect stronger measures against Russia. EU sanction packages target the banking sector, cryptocurrencies, restrictions on crypto exchanges, and personal sanctions against those helping bypass oil restrictions.
Russian banks are already partly cut off from SWIFT, but this may intensify, despite Russia's current circumvention mechanisms supported by China. Enhanced sanctions against some Chinese companies are also being discussed.
The new set of sanctions is expected to be announced by the end of September 2024, though political debates over its scope are ongoing. The main focuses remain energy, finance, banking, and tighter control over crypto markets.
