On September 19, the Center for Public Analytics "Vezha" discussed a major international development: the phone call between Chinese President Xi Jinping and former US President Donald Trump. The discussion was led by analyst Valeriy Klochok and political scientist Ihor Reiterovych.
The details of the call remain undisclosed, but its timing coincided with negotiations on the partial sale of TikTok and talks of a trade agreement between Washington and Beijing. Experts believe this conversation sets the stage for further serious discussions and may impact the Russia-Ukraine war. China aims to maintain control over TikTok even after a partial sale, while Trump appears open to compromise, taking into account various groups within American society.
The conversation also touched on the issue of US aid to Taiwan being frozen, likely related to the ongoing dialogue between the US and China. A personal meeting is expected in October, with tariffs and trade at the forefront, while the Russia-Ukraine war remains an integral part of the agenda.
Analysts predict a possible scenario of freezing the war along the current contact line, which China had previously suggested. This scenario could be acceptable to both the US and China. Ukraine’s stance has evolved to consider a ceasefire without an official peace treaty but with security guarantees and strengthening of defenses. The feasibility of a truce and options such as territorial exchanges and humanitarian corridors were discussed.
The second part of the discussion focused on changing public attitudes to holding elections during wartime: over recent months, the percentage of Ukrainians ready to support elections after a ceasefire—given security guarantees—has risen to 22%, while 11% support immediate elections, even before a ceasefire. This significantly affects the political agenda and scenarios for upcoming elections, particularly the presidential vote.
The experts concluded that the prospect of early elections could be advantageous to certain political forces, especially the incumbent president, provided the current situation prevails. The feasibility of holding parliamentary first and then presidential elections, the risks for current authorities, and the forecasted shifts in Ukrainian political dynamics with a faster electoral process were analyzed.
The discussion’s results outline both the international context and Ukraine’s internal prospects for future negotiations and elections, highlighting key trends in society.
