On September 24, at the Veza Analytical Center studio, Valeriy Klochok and economist Oleh Penzyin discussed Donald Trump's recent statements and their resonance in Western and Russian media. Experts noted that, although there are no significant shifts in world leaders’ stances on Ukraine, for the first time, critical remarks were publicly made about China, which may influence prospects for a peaceful settlement.
The economic situation in Russia was given special attention. According to Penzyin, the Russian Federation’s economy has lost its sovereignty and is heavily reliant on Chinese support. China buys a large share of Russian oil, ensures the flow of dual-use goods, and broadly determines Russia’s war potential. Kremlin statements about the Russian economy's self-sufficiency were dismissed as inaccurate by the expert.
The discussion also covered the impact of sanctions, including a potential ban on Russian liquefied gas for the EU, and the challenges of changing EU energy policy given the differing national interests of member states. The US, according to the analysts, uses the energy issue to economically pressure the EU for its own benefit.
The internal political situation within EU countries was separately analyzed, where Russian narratives, support for opposition parties, and economic interests make it difficult to form a unified policy to pressure China or end the war in Ukraine.
In conclusion, the experts emphasized Russia’s key dependence on China, the fragmented EU position, and the likely continuation of the war to exhaust Russia’s economy. Ukraine, meanwhile, will continue to rely on external macro-financial support and partner assistance.
