On September 25, the Center for Public Analytics “Vezha” aired a discussion with Petro Oleshchuk, an expert at the «United Ukraine» analytical center, about recent security incidents in Europe and NATO’s reaction to Russia’s actions.
The conversation highlighted the explosion at an industrial warehouse in Swindon (UK) and related evacuations, recent drone attacks in Denmark which local police could not counter, and repeated violations of NATO airspace by Russian aircraft. Oleshchuk stressed that Russia is deliberately testing the limits by provoking alliance member countries.
According to Oleshchuk’s analysis, Russia is steadily intensifying provocations, exploiting the hesitancy of Western political leaders. He noted the overarching Russian strategy seeks to demonstrate NATO’s weakness and encourage European countries to seek individual security arrangements with Moscow.
The expert explained that Russia’s goal is not necessarily the formal dissolution of NATO but to induce political paralysis within the alliance and gradually distance Eastern European countries from collective security. This especially applies to the Baltic states, Poland, Hungary, and Slovakia, which have different stances on the Russian threat and cooperation. Oleshchuk emphasized that this paralysis increases risks for the region.
The prospects for creating new defense or military-political alliances in Europe to counter Russian expansion were also discussed, as current NATO mechanisms may not always provide prompt responses to immediate threats like during the Cold War era.
Oleshchuk concluded that the current situation requires the West to take asymmetric actions and send clear signals of readiness for decisive responses to Russian provocations. He also stressed the importance of regional cooperation among Eastern European countries to bolster defense capabilities amid Moscow’s newly evolving strategy.
