In a new edition of the Center for Public Analytics “Vezha,” political analyst Petro Oleshchuk discusses Russia’s and Putin’s actions aimed at undermining NATO unity and the system of collective security in Europe. According to the expert, Russia sees the war in Ukraine as one step in a broader strategy of hybrid influence on NATO and Western countries.
Oleshchuk says that the active pressure began with Russia’s official ultimatum to NATO in autumn 2021, in which Russia demanded a return of the alliance to its 1997 borders. Since then, the main goal has been to demonstrate institutional weakness and convince countries that their security can only be guaranteed by private agreements with Russia, not through collective mechanisms.
The discussion covers how Moscow uses personal relationships with leaders like Hungary’s Orbán and Slovakia’s Fico to deepen NATO’s divisions and paralyze its decision-making. Russia is trying to fragment the European security space, instead offering individual guarantees and energy benefits to governments willing to cooperate.
Oleshchuk points out that NATO’s current declarative unity does not guarantee real protection, and Eastern European nations are trapped by the need to coordinate collective decisions—decisions that are increasingly paralyzed by pro-Russian alliance members. Analysts predict that this strategy may spur the creation of new military-political blocs involving Ukraine, designed for real protection of the region.
Experts believe that the illusion of collective security only heightens the regional threats and that the most effective answer will be the creation of strong alternative alliances. The time demands a rethink of security approaches and a clear response to Russia’s hybrid challenges.
