On September 25, the Center for Public Analytics "Vezha" conducted an interview with military expert Ivan Stupak. The discussion centered on Ukrainian naval drone strikes against the Russian port of Novorossiysk and the oil terminal in Tuapse.
Stupak explained that the attacks aim to disrupt transportation routes for Russian oil exported via the Black Sea. He noted that Ukraine has intensified the use of drones due to increased countermeasures from Russian forces, who regularly adapt their defense tactics by deploying helicopters, aircraft, and drones to intercept Ukrainian strikes.
Ukraine recently targeted and destroyed the last Soviet-era amphibious aircraft in Russia, as well as helicopters and radar stations, facilitating a successful drone attack on the Novorossiysk port and its oil terminal. The expert emphasized that the objective of these operations is to block oil export routes, impacting Russia’s budget. As of August, Russia’s budget deficit reached 49 billion euros.
Besides economic goals, Ukraine also aims to limit the operations of Russia's Black Sea Fleet, restricting their ability to launch cruise missile attacks from Novorossiysk and Abkhazia ports.
Political backing was also discussed: President Volodymyr Zelensky stated he had received approval from Donald Trump to respond to Russian attacks on Ukraine's energy sector. However, experts cautioned that such permissions may be subject to rapid change depending on US political dynamics.
Stupak noted that Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy infrastructure could be scaled up, but this depends on political decisions and available weaponry.
The interview concluded with an analysis of potential future developments and hopes for ongoing Ukrainian success.
