On September 26, the Veza Center for Public Analytics hosted a discussion summarizing the week's key events, focusing on the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine war, provocations against NATO, and Ukraine's political processes.
Experts highlighted that Russian aggression increasingly manifests through information and military provocations against European countries, including drone activity, threats to aircraft, and displays of force near NATO borders. This approach is seen as psychological and political pressure rather than outright invasion, although the risk of hybrid escalation is rising.
Much attention was given to Western responses, including changing rhetoric from NATO and the US. Analysts agree that a direct war between Russia and the West remains unlikely for now, but the Kremlin is testing Western resolve. The panel discussed China's interests in the situation, as well as the diplomatic competition between the US, EU, and China for influence in Ukraine and Europe.
The political angle was examined in detail: statements by Trump, debates over Ukrainian elections and democratic processes during wartime, and the activities of Ukrainian political figures such as Volodymyr Zelensky and Valeriy Zaluzhnyi, especially in relation to Western partners.
The experts concluded that, as long as the war continues, holding elections in Ukraine is complicated. While Western partners raise the issue, they demand security guarantees. The risk of the Kremlin exploiting election issues was discussed, as was the need for Ukraine to avoid tying elections to peace negotiations with Russia.
The discussion closed with an overview of Ukraine's security challenges, the importance of continued international support, and the need for ongoing geopolitical maneuvering by major global players regarding Ukraine.
