In a recent episode of the Center for Public Analytics “Vezha,” director Valerii Klychko and expert Petro Oleshchuk discussed the growing provocations from Russia against NATO countries and the West. The conversation was spurred by several recent incidents: the explosion of a depot in Swindon, UK, which shook nearby houses and triggered evacuation, as well as new drone attacks in Denmark where local police were unable to effectively respond.
The experts highlighted increasing Russian activity on NATO’s borders and airspace, including US fighter jets scrambled in Alaska due to suspicious flights and Russian aircraft flying over German infrastructure. Oleshchuk argued that the Kremlin is gradually expanding its red lines, testing the West’s response and identifying weaknesses in its defense.
Among recent statements from Western leaders, Emmanuel Macron stressed that NATO should toughen its responses, although direct action against airspace violations is not yet allowed. According to experts, this reluctance may provoke Russia to increase the scale of its provocations, up to actual combat attacks on NATO member territory.
Oleshchuk emphasized that the West’s hesitation to respond decisively only encourages further aggression from Moscow. Russian propaganda already frames the confrontation as a war against NATO rather than merely a local conflict with Ukraine, raising the risk of a future direct Russian strike against the Alliance.
