Recent events mark a new phase in the hybrid war Russia is pursuing under Vladimir Putin. According to experts, the Kremlin is actively testing the West's reaction to 'red lines' through propaganda, drone attacks in European countries, and provocative statements from Russian diplomats.
Drone attacks in Denmark and other countries are seen as elements of Russia's hybrid war, not necessarily launched from Russian territory. These operations may be executed by local citizens opposed to their governments or by criminal groups connected to Russia. Effects include airport shutdowns, flight diversions, and an increase in public anxiety in the West.
The Kremlin's main objectives are to demonstrate NATO's weakness and sow chaos among Ukraine's European partners, potentially destabilizing Western military and economic support to Ukraine. Experts emphasize, however, that Russia currently lacks the resources for a new large-scale ground operation in Europe. Present activities are viewed more as demonstrations and pressure tactics than actual preparation for escalation.
The global context is complicated by China's and the US's attitudes, both of which have stakes in the situation around Ukraine. China is not interested in severe escalation but remains in active contact with the West, while the US continues to support Ukraine, mainly through intermediaries and by reinforcing NATO unity.
The discussion concludes with potential future scenarios, emphasizing that Kremlin decisions are made within short time frames and focus mainly on exerting psychological pressure on Europe and demonstrating Russia's influence on the world stage.
