On September 30, political analyst Ihor Chalenko discussed the upcoming elections to the lower house of the Czech parliament, scheduled for October 3-4. The election outcome will determine whether the Czech Republic remains firmly pro-Ukraine or changes its political orientation.
The current government, led by Petr Fiala, is pro-European and strongly supports Ukraine, having introduced sanctions against Russia. The main challenger is the ANO party, headed by former Prime Minister Andrej Babiš, who promises domestic reforms and, regarding foreign policy, advocates negotiations with Russia and questions ongoing support for Ukraine.
The opposition includes the far-right SPD party, which is against the EU, NATO, and supporting Kyiv. The election campaign is marked by significant information operations and reported Russian interference, according to the Czech security services. If Babiš wins, the Czech Republic may weaken support for Ukraine and adopt a softer stance toward Russia, though a radical policy change remains unlikely for now.
The current Czech "ammunition initiative"—aimed at supplying Ukraine with shells—may be threatened if a new government is formed. However, the Czech Republic will likely remain within the EU and NATO, though its influence on Ukraine policy may diminish.
The Czech elections represent a critical crossroads for future cooperation with Ukraine. Ukrainian diplomats and experts should strengthen ties with other partners amid a potential political shift in Prague.
