In his latest episode, Vitalii Portnikov examines the current escalation in Russia's war against Ukraine, focusing on the real and rhetorical actions of the parties. The central theme is Donald Trump's speech to US military personnel, delivered as Russia launched new missile attacks on Dnipro and Kharkiv. Portnikov notes that Trump's rhetoric, including calling Putin a "paper tiger," does not affect the Russian leadership's actions.
Trump advocates for "peace through strength," but he does not clarify what strength should be used against Russia. Meanwhile, the war sees a real escalation from Moscow's side—drone strikes, violations of NATO airspace, and threats to Europe. Portnikov highlights the indecision of Western leaders and lack of real responses, which only increases Putin's sense of impunity.
The article reviews historical examples such as the US withdrawal from Afghanistan and past defeats of superpowers in wars against weaker opponents, showing how these events impact the current situation. It analyzes the risk of the conflict spreading to European countries through hybrid and drone warfare, the weakness of NATO's political response, and the potential for political shifts in Europe.
The expert's conclusion is that Trump's actions are limited to words, while Russia expands its military activities. European and US politicians limit themselves to rhetoric and do not address the new technological threats, in particular, the drone war. Ukraine remains the crucial factor in European security and must rely on its own resources amidst a protracted war.
