At the start of the broadcast, journalist and political analyst Vitaliy Portnikov joined the discussion. The main topic: how a possible resolution of the conflict in Israel could influence developments in Ukraine. According to Portnikov, while agreements have been reached to release hostages and partially withdraw Israeli troops from Gaza, the situation remains unstable due to the lack of HAMAS disarmament. He remains skeptical about Donald Trump's statements regarding his peacemaking role, noting that the future depends on developments and military decisions on both sides.
Portnikov emphasizes that the return of hostages does not guarantee the end of the war and, on the contrary, may lead to new waves of terror. He also discusses the role of the US in Middle East conflicts and Trump's use of business ties for negotiations. However, the analyst believes the real causes of conflict are deeper than personal relationships between leaders.
In the Ukrainian context, Portnikov references Trump’s comments about the potential transfer of American missiles to Ukraine. However, he believes the key question is whether the US and other partners are truly committed to a just peace that does not result in Ukraine losing its independence. Portnikov draws parallels with the Russian-Georgian scenario, stating that business-deal tactics don’t work with Putin because of his imperial mindset. He analyzes why economic pressure and sanctions, while important, are not always sufficient tools to influence Russia.
The situation in the post-Soviet region is also discussed: the example of Azerbaijan and Armenia, Turkey's position, China's influence, and the role of the Russia-Ukraine war in reducing Russia's regional sway. Portnikov stresses that the outcome of the war in Ukraine will determine the future of Eastern Europe and the former Soviet republics.
Separately, internal Ukrainian sentiments and the activities of pro-Russian politicians are examined, as well as the risks of social degradation if the conflict drags on or becomes “Lebanonized.” According to Portnikov, Russia’s goal is to leave Ukraine in ruins and turn the battleground into a space of hopelessness. Nevertheless, he highlights Ukrainians’ resilience and steadfastness. In conclusion, only Russia’s defeat in this war will alter the region’s geopolitical landscape and secure Ukraine’s future.
