On October 13, the Public Center "Nerdky Vezha" hosted a discussion with political analyst Volodymyr Fesenko about the recent developments in the Middle East and their possible influence on the Russia-Ukraine war.
Fesenko highlighted the significance of the ceasefire reached between Israel and Hamas. According to him, while the agreement is currently a truce rather than full peace, it remains a major international event achieved with Donald Trump's active involvement. Instead of conducting negotiations himself, Trump acted as a guarantor and driving force, pressuring both sides—especially Israel—and leveraging his influence over mediators from Qatar and Egypt.
The expert noted that the situation remains fragile, with the most pressing issue being the disarmament of Hamas and the risk of renewed hostilities. Such truces have collapsed before in Gaza, making the sustainability of the current agreement and the establishment of an effective administration critically important.
The discussion stressed that Trump’s experience in the Middle East might set a precedent for Ukraine. Fesenko suggested that after his success in Israel, Trump may try a similar approach to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, possibly encouraging or arranging peace talks. President Zelensky, in a Fox News interview, also acknowledged Trump’s decisive pressure on Netanyahu, which led to the suspension of hostilities.
However, Fesenko warned that U.S. influence over Russia is more limited than over Israel, and any peace plan, if proposed, is unlikely to fully satisfy Ukraine. While the appearance of a "Trump Peace Plan" for Ukraine is possible, he advises Kyiv to engage closely with the U.S. to mitigate possible risks and to maintain bipartisan support within American politics.
In conclusion, Fesenko argued that the end of major combat in the Middle East will reinforce Trump’s image as a peacemaker and likely prompt greater American engagement in seeking peace for Ukraine. Specific routes remain unclear, but active negotiation efforts are anticipated in the coming weeks.
