On October 14, an analytical discussion was held with Veza Center head Valeriy Kolchuk and political expert Vadym Denysenko. The main topic was the assessment of the high-profile peace agreement signed in Egypt regarding Gaza. According to Denysenko, the agreement was signed without the participation of the conflicting parties as delegations from Israel and Hamas were absent. Despite the deal being praised by world leaders, the situation in Gaza remains tense with public reprisals against Hamas opponents continuing despite declarations of peace.
The discussion covered attempts at peaceful conflict resolution, the potential transfer of US Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine, and Russia's strategic reaction. Denysenko highlighted that the Kremlin genuinely fears Ukraine potentially acquiring advanced weaponry, despite its official bravado. He predicted that Moscow is not ready for escalation in Europe or open confrontation with NATO at this stage.
Special attention was paid to Russia’s mobilization policy. The new law formalizing the mobilization of reserves for foreign 'special operations' is seen more as a hybrid warfare tactic than a sign of impending mass mobilization. The discussion also focused on NATO and especially US responses to possible escalation—increasing Europe's defense capabilities, political statements, and information warfare.
The conclusion underscored that much of today’s rhetoric is an element of political and informational pressure. No major changes in Russia’s military strategy are expected in the near future, and further developments in bilateral negotiations in Washington and potential arms deliveries to Ukraine should be watched for definitive conclusions.
