Vitalii Portnikov examines the prospects for a temporary suspension or end of the Russia-Ukraine war in the context of recent geopolitical shifts. Special emphasis is placed on the impact of the Middle East settlement, ongoing talks between US and Ukrainian presidents, and the political role of Donald Trump.
The author stresses that there is currently no real political capacity for a complete resolution of the conflict in the coming years. Yet, strong external pressure could force Russia to enact at least a temporary ceasefire as a tactic to regroup. Middle Eastern events, especially the active phase of the Israel-Hamas conflict and shifting US priorities, have greatly influenced international policy towards Ukraine and Russia.
Portnikov provides a detailed analysis of Donald Trump's role after his return to power, noting his demands for settling the Middle East conflict and comparable tactics towards the Russia-Ukraine war. The US is reportedly considering partial recognition of Russian control over occupied Ukrainian territories and changes to sanctions policy in exchange for halting hostilities.
The risk persists, however, that Russia may use any pause to prepare for renewed aggression, leaving Ukraine needing to ready itself for renewed escalation. The author highlights the critical importance of Western support, particularly in air defense, and notes that the nature of warfare has shifted towards targeted infrastructural strikes.
The article also addresses viewer questions, including those on China's position, the EU's stance, and historical analogies with World War I. Portnikov outlines two realistic scenarios: ongoing war of attrition or a temporary peace on unfavorable terms for Ukraine. A third, ideal scenario, currently seems unlikely.
In conclusion, Portnikov urges preparation for varied outcomes, continued support for Ukraine's Armed Forces, and upholding humanitarian values and strong societal support.