In an interview, Valeriy Kluchok, head of the Center for Public Analytics 'Vezha', discussed the impact of Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries (ORs) on the Russian economy and political situation.
According to Kluchok, Ukrainian attacks have significantly affected Russia's ability to maintain fuel market stability. The Russian government was forced to ease subsidy rules for refineries and ban exports of petroleum products to stabilize the situation. The expert considers these steps a sign of a serious crisis that Russian authorities try not to disclose openly.
Kluchok pointed out that reduced export capacity leads to an oversupply of crude oil on the domestic market, which may result in price drops. Additionally, due to production problems and a labor shortage, Russia seeks to import thousands of construction workers. The expert believes the Russian economy is heading toward crisis, but for the Putin administration, maintaining control and continuing the war remain priorities.
Among the consequences of the strikes is also the strengthening of Ukraine's subjectivity on the international stage. Despite Western caution regarding the transfer of long-range weapons, Ukraine demonstrates the effectiveness of domestic military development and an ability to impact the Russian economy.
Kluchok emphasized Ukraine’s significant dependence on external support but noted that scaling up attacks and increasing drone and missile production is critical. The supply of Western missiles, such as Tomahawk, remains a political issue and is used to pressure Russia.
The expert also observed growing internal disputes among Russian government entities, indicating increased socio-economic tension. The stability of Putin's regime depends on continuing the war, and prolonged crisis may trigger strikes and unrest among the population.
Overall, Kluchok stressed the importance of targeted actions to influence the situation both politically and economically.
