On October 17, the Veza Civic Oversight Center, led by Valeriy Kluchok, held a discussion on the possibility of a 'big deal' between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin, continued US–Russia negotiations, and their implications for Ukraine.
The panel included military expert Ivan Stupak, political scientist Petro Oleschuk, and economist Oleh Penzen. They noted that US–Russia talks are taking place amid reduced European military support to Ukraine and Russia's increasing mobilization of its population.
Oleh Penzen emphasized that Russia is preparing for mass mobilization, shifting from a contract-based military to broad conscription, even as its budget revenues fall and deficits grow. This, he said, signals Moscow’s intent to continue the war.
The experts noted that Trump seeks a quick peace achievement for political gain, suggesting a “big deal” with Russia could involve compromises, possibly at Ukraine's expense. However, they stressed that Putin is unlikely to make concessions inconsistent with his geopolitical ambitions.
Panelists also examined the supply of arms to Ukraine, Europe’s support role, Russia's economic resilience, as well as risks of information manipulation and the waning of international support for Kyiv. The consensus was that no evidence suggests the war will end soon—on the contrary, Russian mobilization signals prolongation.
Trump and the US may now see the Russo-Ukrainian war as only one item in a larger global agenda involving energy, rare earth markets, and geopolitical control in Ukraine.
Summing up, the experts advised the Ukrainian public against illusions of quick peace, urging vigilance and preparation on military, political, and economic fronts for a long-term confrontation.
