This discussion features experts analyzing the potential summit between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin, as well as the possible involvement of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in negotiations. According to participants, despite Trump’s statements, there are doubts that such a meeting will take place soon due to various nuances in the positions of the sides.
Special attention is given to the difference in tone between the statements of the US and Russia. The Russian side remains more reserved, suggesting alternative locations such as Istanbul instead of Budapest for the meeting. Furthermore, Trump recently mentioned Turkish President Erdogan as a possible mediator in the process.
Experts are skeptical that Vladimir Putin will agree to real peace without further concessions and increased pressure. They point out that Ukraine cannot accept terms that involve territorial concessions, such as on Donbas. This scenario is not supported by the Ukrainian public, military, or, likely, Trump himself, given expected reactions in the United States.
The participants note that Trump’s peace initiative may be motivated by the desire to present a diplomatic success by Christmas, theorizing that the active phase of the war might be ended by the year’s end under Trump’s proposed peace efforts.
The role of Europe in bringing an end to the war is seen as critical. Despite some statements about the need to extend the conflict to weaken Russia further, most EU countries, according to the speakers, still support peace, and several have joined joint weapons procurement initiatives for Ukraine.
The possibility of a “freeze” in the conflict, meaning a temporary ceasefire by mutual agreement, is discussed. Experts emphasize that such a scenario does not solve fundamental strategic issues and is only a pause in active hostilities. Maintaining Western support for Ukraine even after a possible ceasefire is seen as vital, considering the persistent threat from Russia.
The discussion also highlighted Russia’s concerns about potential arms deliveries to Ukraine, particularly Tomahawk or ATACMS missiles, though experts do not expect these weapons to be supplied in the short term.
In conclusion, the experts stress the importance of Ukraine’s diplomatic efforts in ensuring long-term Western commitment and note that any ceasefire would not mean the end of the war but merely a change in its phase and dynamics.
