On October 20, the Veža Civic Energy Center hosted a discussion with political analyst Ihor Chalenko about the end of the war in Ukraine and the prospects for holding elections.
Chalenko noted there is currently a “window of opportunity” for pressuring Russia to reach a ceasefire. He disagrees with the pessimistic assessment of President Zelensky's recent visit to Washington, stressing coordinated political moves involving the US and Trump.
According to Chalenko, Trump is balancing pressure on Russia with attempts to engage Putin in negotiations. Of particular note is the possible Budapest meeting at the end of October involving Putin, and the potential impact of China. Rumors about Russian concessions are circulating, but the expert believes these are inaccurate.
The role of the “coalition of the willing” for Ukrainian security guarantees in the post-war period is emphasized through Zelensky’s initiatives. Factors influencing future agreements include China’s role, risks associated with the details of peace accords, and the danger of decisions made without Ukrainian participation.
Another key topic was the possibility of elections as part of political arrangements for ending the war. Chalenko points out that quick elections are complicated legislatively and politically, yet scenarios for presidential or simultaneous elections are under discussion due to international pressure and domestic factors.
The analyst evaluates potential reactions among political elites, complexities of the electoral system, and observes that presidential elections are most feasible in the current environment. Much depends on parliamentary agreement and the position of political players.
Speakers also noted the risks from Russian information warfare, increased propaganda, and some pro-Russian candidates. According to Chalenko, domestic political issues could prove as decisive for the country’s development as the peace talks themselves.
