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China Displaces Russia in the Arctic and Central Asia: New Global Threats and Prospects


An overview of China's rising influence in the Russian Arctic, Far East, and Central Asia, and the implications for international security and politics.

Recently, China has significantly expanded its influence in the Russian Arctic, the Far East, and Central Asia. Active involvement in infrastructure development, port construction, and the launch of a new Arctic sea route allows China to gain increasing control over key regional logistics paths and resources.

In 2024, China's trade with Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan exceeded $94.8 billion—twice as much as Russia's. This demonstrates a declining Russian influence in the region compared to previous decades.

The new China-Europe Arctic sea route shortens delivery times to 26 days, strengthening China’s position in the northern region, previously dominated by Russia. Chinese companies are investing in port development, and cooperation with Russian regions brings more Chinese capital into play.

Experts note that Russia is becoming increasingly economically and technologically dependent on China. Without Beijing's participation, Russian infrastructure struggles due to lack of funding. Security issues are also a concern—China’s control in the Arctic and growing regional influence pose a potential threat to Europe and the world.

Central Asia has largely become a domain of Beijing's dominance, and in Far Eastern and Arctic matters, China’s influence is rising while Russia’s autonomy weakens.

Analysts emphasize the need to diversify trade and reduce reliance on China to minimize global risks. Western and Asian governments are now discussing ways to limit Chinese influence in key logistics and technology sectors.

Overall, China’s new role in the Arctic and Central Asia may reshape future trends in global security and the economy.