On October 23, at the Center for Public Analytics "Vezha", Valeriy Kolachuk and Illya Neshchodovsky provided an in-depth analysis of the latest European Union and US sanctions on Russia. The discussion focused on the mechanisms, adoption processes, effectiveness, and potential impact of these sanctions on Russia’s economy and energy sector.
The panel highlighted that the latest EU sanctions package faced delays due to the positions of member states like Hungary, Slovakia, and Austria. Structurally, the EU aims to phase out Russian gas starting in 2027, with provisions for both short-term and long-term contracts, but exceptions remain for some countries. The experts noted that these delays weaken sanction effectiveness, especially in the energy sector. Special attention was paid to loopholes in oil products restrictions and exceptions that allow continued imports of Russian oil for certain countries.
The expansion of sanctions to additional Russian banks and companies, including secondary sanctions for entities assisting in evasion, was discussed. While this is seen as a positive step, there are still avenues for sanctioned companies to circumvent restrictions.
Significant focus was given to US sanctions, especially against Rosneft and Lukoil and their subsidiaries. Experts stressed that American sanctions are more robust, especially due to transaction bans in dollars and technological service restrictions, making their impact potentially greater than EU measures. However, the actual implementation timeline for these sanctions remains uncertain and subject to political developments.
The simultaneous adoption of EU and US sanctions was not coordinated, as each pursues its own interests and influence mechanisms on Russia. Nevertheless, these new packages have sent a strong signal to global markets and further increased economic pressure on Russia's budget.
In conclusion, the experts acknowledged that despite shortcomings and delays, sanctions continue to significantly complicate Russia’s financial and technological capabilities. However, more decisive and coordinated Western action is needed for a substantial impact on Russian exports and the energy sector.
